Grappling: 3.6 takedowns / 15 vs 63% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.5 vs 3.8 takedowns per 15) and a finishing gap (82% vs 0% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 7 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Silva | Sonnen |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 35 | 33 |
| Height | 6′2″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 73″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Silva has 7 archived five-round fights to Sonnen’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors SilvaSonnen averages 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes; Silva has stopped 69% of attempts on record.
Favors SilvaSilva holds a 4-inch reach edge (77" to 73"); Sonnen has to cross distance to land.
Favors SilvaSilva has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Sonnen keeps landing takedowns at 3.8 per 15 minutes; if Silva stays upright, the striking rates (3 vs 3.1 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
