Distance: 2-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (3.8 vs 2.5 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (47% vs 0% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Two grapplers by the numbers (4.2 and 2.8 takedowns per 15). Whoever wins the first clinch battle sets the terms for the rest.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 10 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | St-Pierre | Shields |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 32 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 6′0″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
St-Pierre has 10 archived five-round fights to Shields’ 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors St-PierreSt-Pierre averages 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Shields has stopped 35% of attempts on record.
Favors ShieldsSt-Pierre holds a 4-inch reach edge (76" to 72"); Shields has to cross distance to land.
Favors St-PierreWatch the first takedown attempt from St-Pierre: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether St-Pierre keeps landing takedowns at 4.2 per 15 minutes; if Shields stays upright, the striking rates (3.8 vs 2.5 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
