Distance: 4-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (3.7 vs 5.7 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidencePace: 5.7 vs 3.7 landed / min
| Attribute | Condit | Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 27 | 28 |
| Height | 6′2″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 75″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Diaz lands 5.7 significant strikes per minute to Condit’s 3.7: a real volume gap.
Favors DiazDiaz has finished 86% of archived wins (4 KO/TKO, 2 submission).
Favors DiazDiaz has 11 archived bouts to Condit’s 5: the deeper book of tape belongs to Diaz.
Favors DiazCondit has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Diaz averages 5.7 landed per minute to Condit at 3.7, so Condit needs the counters to land clean (39% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
