Grappling: 3.8 takedowns / 15 vs 78% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (4.2 vs 0.6 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 11 vs 1 five-round fights
| Attribute | St-Pierre | Condit |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 28 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
St-Pierre has 11 archived five-round fights to Condit’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors St-PierreSt-Pierre averages 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Condit has stopped 38% of attempts on record.
Favors ConditSt-Pierre has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 1.4 strikes per minute; Condit has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors ConditCondit has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether St-Pierre keeps landing takedowns at 4.2 per 15 minutes; if Condit stays upright, the striking rates (3.8 vs 3.7 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
