Pace: 3.7 vs 2.4 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3.8 vs 0.7 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 5-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Hendricks | Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 31 |
| Height | 5′9″ | 5′11″ |
| Reach | 69″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Lawler holds a 5-inch reach edge (74" to 69"); Hendricks has to cross distance to land.
Favors LawlerHendricks averages 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes; Lawler has stopped 65% of attempts on record.
Favors LawlerLawler has been finished 3 times in the archive and absorbs 4.7 strikes per minute; Hendricks has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors HendricksHendricks has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Hendricks keeps landing takedowns at 3.8 per 15 minutes; if Lawler stays upright, the striking rates (3.5 vs 3.9 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
