Grappling: 3.3 takedowns / 15 vs 65% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (5.3 vs 3.6 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (83% vs 29% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 7 vs 3 five-round fights
| Attribute | McGregor | Aldo |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 27 | 29 |
| Height | 5′9″ | 5′7″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Aldo has 7 archived five-round fights to McGregor’s 3; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors AldoMcGregor holds a 4-inch reach edge (74" to 70"); Aldo has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors McGregorMcGregor lands 5.3 significant strikes per minute to Aldo’s 3.6: a real volume gap.
Favors McGregorMcGregor has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: McGregor averages 5.3 landed per minute to Aldo at 3.6, so Aldo needs the counters to land clean (46% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
