Distance: 2-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (2.4 vs 4 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
The stored career numbers do not draw a sharp contrast between these two, which usually means the fight is decided by adjustments rather than a single dominant phase.
Supporting evidencePace: 4 vs 2.4 landed / min
| Attribute | Woodley | Thompson |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34 | 34 |
| Height | 5′9″ | 6′0″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Thompson lands 4 significant strikes per minute to Woodley’s 2.4: a real volume gap.
Favors ThompsonWoodley has finished 83% of archived wins (5 KO/TKO, 0 submission), 2 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors WoodleyThompson has 4 archived five-round fights to Woodley’s 2; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors ThompsonWoodley has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Thompson averages 4 landed per minute to Woodley at 2.4, so Woodley needs the counters to land clean (48% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
