Grappling: 3.3 takedowns / 15 vs 59% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a finishing gap (43% vs 85% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Johnson's wrestling (2.4 takedowns per 15) against Cormier's striking is the central exchange: Cormier stops 80% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Johnson finished 5× on record
| Attribute | Cormier | Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 38 | 33 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 72″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Johnson has been finished 5 times in the archive and absorbs 1.8 strikes per minute; Cormier has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors CormierJohnson holds a 6-inch reach edge (78" to 72"); Cormier has to cross distance to land.
Favors JohnsonJohnson has finished 85% of archived wins (11 KO/TKO, 0 submission), 3 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors JohnsonJohnson has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Johnson keeps landing takedowns at 2.4 per 15 minutes; if Cormier stays upright, the striking rates (4.3 vs 3.3 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
