Durability: Overeem finished 4× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (6.9 vs 3.6 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (64% vs 25% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 10 vs 3 five-round fights
| Attribute | Holloway | Aldo |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 25 | 31 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 5′7″ |
| Reach | 69″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | #4 Lightweight | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Aldo has 10 archived five-round fights to Holloway’s 3; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors AldoHolloway lands 6.9 significant strikes per minute to Aldo’s 3.6: a real volume gap.
Favors HollowayAldo has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 3.8 strikes per minute.
Favors HollowayTitle-fight nerves are real: the first round often decides who is willing to lead.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Holloway averages 6.9 landed per minute to Aldo at 3.6, so Aldo needs the counters to land clean (46% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
