Grappling: 5.3 takedowns / 15 vs 73% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (7.3 vs 3.1 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (100% vs 50% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidencePace: 7.3 vs 3.1 landed / min
| Attribute | Justino | Holm |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 36 |
| Height | 5′8″ | 5′8″ |
| Reach | 68″ | 69″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Justino lands 7.3 significant strikes per minute to Holm’s 3.1: a real volume gap.
Favors JustinoHolm has 5 archived five-round fights to Justino’s 2; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors HolmJustino has finished 100% of archived wins (3 KO/TKO, 0 submission).
Favors JustinoTitle-fight nerves are real: the first round often decides who is willing to lead.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Justino averages 7.3 landed per minute to Holm at 3.1, so Holm needs the counters to land clean (40% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
