Referee · John McCarthyRick Winter · 26-30Chris Lee · 26-30Marcos Rosales · 25-30Source · UFC Stats · round stats archived
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Round-by-Round Analysis
Fight progression reconstructed from verified round-level observations.
Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00
Matheus NicolauRound 3Louis Smolka
21 / 43Sig. strikes15 / 42
49%Accuracy36%
33 / 57Total strikes19 / 46
0Knockdowns0
3 / 4Takedowns0 / 0
1Sub. attempts0
2:20Control0:01
4.2Pace / min3.0
99%Control share1%
Matheus Nicolau
Targethead 29% · body 71% · leg 0%
Phasedistance 86% · clinch 0% · ground 14%
Louis Smolka
Targethead 33% · body 53% · leg 13%
Phasedistance 100% · clinch 0% · ground 0%
Statistical signals
Output edgeMatheus Nicolau landed 21 significant strikes to 15.Control edgeMatheus Nicolau held 140s of control to 1s.Striking edgeMatheus Nicolau struck at 49% accuracy to 36%.
Descriptive only. These compare recorded output; they are not judge scores and do not say who won the round.
What changed from R2
Pace downMatheus Nicolau's significant-strike pace moved -34% from R2 to R3, 4.2 against 6.4 per minute.
Target shiftMatheus Nicolau's head share of landed strikes moved -31 pts, to 29% head with 71% body and 0% leg.
Phase shiftMatheus Nicolau's ground share of landed strikes moved +14 pts, to 14% on the ground against 86% at distance.
Grappling pressureMatheus Nicolau attempted 4 more takedowns than in R2, 4 against 0.
Control swingMatheus Nicolau's control time moved +140s, 140s against 0s.
Pace downLouis Smolka's significant-strike pace moved -44% from R2 to R3, 3.0 against 5.4 per minute.
Observed fight vs historical Fight DNA
Compares this fight against each fighter's pre-fight Fight DNA baseline. Shown only where the historical sample supports it.
Matheus Nicolau
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Louis Smolka
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Fight summary
87Matheus Nicolau sig. strikes
49Louis Smolka sig. strikes
3rounds observed
+286%largest pace swing, R1 to R2 (Louis Smolka)
R1
R2
R3
Pace is significant strikes landed per minute of observed round time. A round with no recorded observation is left empty rather than drawn as zero.
