Experience: 6 vs 0 five-round fights
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (1.9 vs 0.3 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Reyes's output (5 per minute) against Jones's more selective 4.4: pace versus precision.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 14 vs 1 five-round fights
| Attribute | Jones | Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 30 |
| Height | 6′4″ | 6′4″ |
| Reach | 84″ | 77″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | #8 Light Heavyweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Jones has 14 archived five-round fights to Reyes’ 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors JonesJones holds a 7-inch reach edge (84" to 77"); Reyes has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors JonesReyes has finished 67% of archived wins (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission), 3 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors ReyesReyes has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
With the stored numbers close, the middle rounds come down to adjustments: who solves the opening read first, with strike defense at 64% and 49%.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
