Grappling: 3.9 takedowns / 15 vs 49% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (2.4 vs 4.1 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (0% vs 82% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Opposite stances create an open-side geometry from the first exchange — lead-foot position and the rear-hand lane matter more than usual.
Supporting evidencePace: 4.1 vs 2.4 landed / min
| Attribute | Henderson | Franklin |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 38 | 34 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Franklin lands 4.1 significant strikes per minute to Henderson’s 2.4: a real volume gap.
Favors FranklinFranklin holds a 2-inch reach edge (76" to 74"); Henderson has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors FranklinFranklin has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 2.1 strikes per minute.
Favors HendersonRead the first two minutes for who is willing to lead and who is countering; the stored numbers do not flag a lopsided early-round finisher.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Franklin averages 4.1 landed per minute to Henderson at 2.4, so Henderson needs the counters to land clean (47% accuracy on record).
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
