Durability: Hughes finished 5× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (1.2 vs 3 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 3 takedowns / 15 vs 75% defense
| Attribute | Machida | Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 29 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′0″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Evans averages 3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Machida has stopped 75% of attempts on record.
Favors MachidaEvans has 2 archived five-round fights to Machida’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors EvansEvans has finished 50% of archived wins (4 KO/TKO, 0 submission).
Favors EvansWatch the first takedown attempt from Evans: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Evans keeps landing takedowns at 3 per 15 minutes; if Machida stays upright, the striking rates (2.6 vs 2.1 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
