Distance: 6-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (3.8 vs 2.5 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
The stored career numbers do not draw a sharp contrast between these two, which usually means the fight is decided by adjustments rather than a single dominant phase.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Craig finished 5× on record
| Attribute | Allen | Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 27 | 35 |
| Height | 6′2″ | 6′3″ |
| Reach | 75″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | #4 Middleweight | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Craig has been finished 5 times in the archive and absorbs 3 strikes per minute.
Favors AllenCraig has finished 100% of archived wins (3 KO/TKO, 6 submission), 2 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors CraigAllen lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute to Craig’s 2.5: a real volume gap.
Favors AllenAllen has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Allen averages 3.8 landed per minute to Craig at 2.5, so Craig needs the counters to land clean (45% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
