Pace: 5.3 vs 2.7 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (7.6 vs 3.5 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (100% vs 36% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Aspinall's wrestling (2.6 takedowns per 15) against Tybura's striking is the central exchange: Tybura stops 70% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidencePace: 7.6 vs 3.5 landed / min
| Attribute | Aspinall | Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 37 |
| Height | 6′5″ | 6′3″ |
| Reach | 78″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | #1 Heavyweight | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Aspinall lands 7.6 significant strikes per minute to Tybura’s 3.5: a real volume gap.
Favors AspinallTybura has been finished 3 times in the archive and absorbs 3.3 strikes per minute.
Favors AspinallAspinall has 2 archived five-round fights to Tybura’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors AspinallAspinall has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Aspinall keeps landing takedowns at 2.6 per 15 minutes; if Tybura stays upright, the striking rates (7.6 vs 3.5 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
