Grappling: 2.9 takedowns / 15 vs 52% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (4.6 vs 3 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 5-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Diaz | Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 24 | 26 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 5′9″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 71″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Diaz holds a 5-inch reach edge (76" to 71"); Guillard has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors DiazGuillard has been finished 3 times in the archive and absorbs 1.9 strikes per minute; Diaz has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors DiazDiaz lands 4.6 significant strikes per minute to Guillard’s 3: a real volume gap.
Favors DiazWho sets the range in round one: Diaz holds the longer reach, so early success for the shorter fighter usually requires feints and fast entries.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Diaz averages 4.6 landed per minute to Guillard at 3, so Guillard needs the counters to land clean (40% accuracy on record).
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
