Distance: 3-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (2.4 vs 4 takedowns per 15) and a finishing gap (0% vs 67% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 6 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Henderson | Khabilov |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 27 |
| Height | 5′9″ | 5′8″ |
| Reach | 70″ | 73″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Henderson has 6 archived five-round fights to Khabilov’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors HendersonKhabilov averages 4 takedowns per 15 minutes; Henderson has stopped 63% of attempts on record.
Favors HendersonKhabilov holds a 3-inch reach edge (73" to 70"); Henderson has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors KhabilovKhabilov has 2 first-round finishes in the last 3 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Henderson keeps landing takedowns at 2.4 per 15 minutes; if Khabilov stays upright, the striking rates (2.9 vs 2 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
