Danger zone: 100% finish rate
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.2 vs 3.8 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 6-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Thompson | Hendricks |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 32 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 5′9″ |
| Reach | 75″ | 69″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Thompson holds a 6-inch reach edge (75" to 69"); Hendricks has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors ThompsonHendricks averages 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes; Thompson has stopped 63% of attempts on record.
Favors ThompsonHendricks has 3 archived five-round fights to Thompson’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors HendricksThompson has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Hendricks keeps landing takedowns at 3.8 per 15 minutes; if Thompson stays upright, the striking rates (4 vs 3.5 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
