Grappling: 2.8 takedowns / 15 vs 37% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (6.5 vs 1.1 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 6.5 takedowns / 15 vs 76% defense
| Attribute | Hernandez | Pereira |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 31 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 75″ | 73″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | #8 Middleweight | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Hernandez averages 6.5 takedowns per 15 minutes; Pereira has stopped 76% of attempts on record.
Favors PereiraHernandez has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 2.5 strikes per minute; Pereira has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors PereiraHernandez has finished 83% of archived wins (1 KO/TKO, 4 submission).
Favors HernandezPereira has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Hernandez keeps landing takedowns at 6.5 per 15 minutes; if Pereira stays upright, the striking rates (4.6 vs 4.5 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
