Referee · Keith PetersonMike Bell · 28-29Ron McCarthy · 28-29Brian Puccillo · 28-29Source · UFC Stats · round stats archived
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Round-by-Round Analysis
Fight progression reconstructed from verified round-level observations.
Unanimous Decision · R3 · 5:00
Asu AlmabayevRound 3Matheus Nicolau
7 / 11Sig. strikes1 / 3
64%Accuracy33%
35 / 64Total strikes21 / 26
1Knockdowns0
0 / 0Takedowns0 / 0
0Sub. attempts0
4:09Control0:00
1.4Pace / min0.2
100%Control share0%
Asu Almabayev
Targethead 71% · body 0% · leg 29%
Phasedistance 43% · clinch 0% · ground 57%
Matheus Nicolau
Targethead 100% · body 0% · leg 0%
Phasedistance 100% · clinch 0% · ground 0%
Statistical signals
Output edgeAsu Almabayev landed 7 significant strikes to 1.Control edgeAsu Almabayev held 249s of control to 0s.Striking edgeAsu Almabayev struck at 64% accuracy to 33%.
Descriptive only. These compare recorded output; they are not judge scores and do not say who won the round.
What changed from R2
Pace upAsu Almabayev's significant-strike pace moved +17% from R2 to R3, 1.4 against 1.2 per minute.
Accuracy shiftAsu Almabayev's significant-strike accuracy moved +36 pts, 64% against 27%.
Target shiftAsu Almabayev's head share of landed strikes moved +55 pts, to 71% head with 0% body and 29% leg.
Phase shiftAsu Almabayev's ground share of landed strikes moved +57 pts, to 57% on the ground against 43% at distance.
Control swingAsu Almabayev's control time moved +181s, 249s against 68s.
Pace downMatheus Nicolau's significant-strike pace moved -90% from R2 to R3, 0.2 against 2.0 per minute.
Target shiftMatheus Nicolau's head share of landed strikes moved +40 pts, to 100% head with 0% body and 0% leg.
Phase shiftMatheus Nicolau's ground share of landed strikes moved -40 pts, to 0% on the ground against 100% at distance.
Observed fight vs historical Fight DNA
Compares this fight against each fighter's pre-fight Fight DNA baseline. Shown only where the historical sample supports it.
Asu Almabayev
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Matheus Nicolau
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Fight summary
22Asu Almabayev sig. strikes
16Matheus Nicolau sig. strikes
3rounds observed
+100%largest pace swing, R1 to R2 (Matheus Nicolau)
R1
R2
R3
Pace is significant strikes landed per minute of observed round time. A round with no recorded observation is left empty rather than drawn as zero.
