The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (3.1 vs 5.2 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 7 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Holm | Aldana |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 38 | 32 |
| Height | 5′8″ | 5′9″ |
| Reach | 69″ | 68″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Holm has 7 archived five-round fights to Aldana’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors HolmAldana lands 5.2 significant strikes per minute to Holm’s 3.1: a real volume gap.
Favors AldanaHolm has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 2.9 strikes per minute; Aldana has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors AldanaRead the first two minutes for who is willing to lead and who is countering; the stored numbers do not flag a lopsided early-round finisher.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Aldana averages 5.2 landed per minute to Holm at 3.1, so Holm needs the counters to land clean (40% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
