Durability: Arlovski finished 7× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (3.1 vs 4.4 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Opposite stances create an open-side geometry from the first exchange — lead-foot position and the rear-hand lane matter more than usual.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 5-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Holm | Correia |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 35 | 33 |
| Height | 5′8″ | 5′5″ |
| Reach | 69″ | 64″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Holm holds a 5-inch reach edge (69" to 64"); Correia has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors HolmHolm has 4 archived five-round fights to Correia’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors HolmCorreia lands 4.4 significant strikes per minute to Holm’s 3.1: a real volume gap.
Favors CorreiaWho sets the range in round one: Holm holds the longer reach, so early success for the shorter fighter usually requires feints and fast entries.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Correia averages 4.4 landed per minute to Holm at 3.1, so Holm needs the counters to land clean (40% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
