Durability: Smith finished 6× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a finishing gap (38% vs 100% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Opposite stances create an open-side geometry from the first exchange — lead-foot position and the rear-hand lane matter more than usual.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 4-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Garry | Prates |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 27 | 31 |
| Height | 6′3″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 74.5″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Rank | #1 Welterweight | #2 Welterweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Prates holds a 4-inch reach edge (78" to 74.5"); Garry has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors PratesPrates has finished 100% of archived wins (5 KO/TKO, 0 submission), 2 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors Prates4.3 and 4.4 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (53% vs 54%) decides the exchanges.
Prates has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
With the stored numbers close, the middle rounds come down to adjustments: who solves the opening read first, with strike defense at 52% and 47%.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
