Distance: 3-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (1.9 vs 3.9 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 3.9 takedowns / 15 vs 70% defense
| Attribute | Marquardt | Palhares |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 30 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 5′8″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 71″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Palhares averages 3.9 takedowns per 15 minutes; Marquardt has stopped 70% of attempts on record.
Favors MarquardtMarquardt holds a 3-inch reach edge (74" to 71"); Palhares has to cross distance to land.
Favors MarquardtPalhares has finished 75% of archived wins (0 KO/TKO, 3 submission), 2 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors PalharesMarquardt has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Palhares keeps landing takedowns at 3.9 per 15 minutes; if Marquardt stays upright, the striking rates (2.7 vs 1.8 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
