Grappling: 3.1 takedowns / 15 vs 54% defense
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The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Duncan's wrestling (2.9 takedowns per 15) against Moicano's striking is the central exchange: Moicano stops 64% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 4 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Moicano | Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 36 | 32 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 5′10″ |
| Reach | 72″ | 71″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | #12 Lightweight | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Moicano has 4 archived five-round fights to Duncan’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors MoicanoMoicano has been finished 5 times in the archive and absorbs 3.5 strikes per minute.
Favors DuncanDuncan averages 2.9 takedowns per 15 minutes; Moicano has stopped 64% of attempts on record.
Favors MoicanoDuncan has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Duncan keeps landing takedowns at 2.9 per 15 minutes; if Moicano stays upright, the striking rates (4.1 vs 4.8 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
