Durability: Tavares finished 3× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.5 vs 5.1 takedowns per 15) and a finishing gap (100% vs 58% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 6 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Pavlovich | Blaydes |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 32 |
| Height | 6′3″ | 6′4″ |
| Reach | 84″ | 80″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | #3 Heavyweight | #5 Heavyweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Blaydes has 6 archived five-round fights to Pavlovich’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors BlaydesBlaydes averages 5.1 takedowns per 15 minutes; Pavlovich has stopped 75% of attempts on record.
Favors PavlovichPavlovich holds a 4-inch reach edge (84" to 80"); Blaydes has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors PavlovichPavlovich has 5 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Blaydes keeps landing takedowns at 5.1 per 15 minutes; if Pavlovich stays upright, the striking rates (4.5 vs 4.2 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
