Danger zone: 3 recent R1 finishes
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3.8 vs 2 takedowns per 15) and a finishing gap (17% vs 100% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Sonnen finished 6× on record
| Attribute | Sonnen | Rua |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 36 | 31 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 73″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Sonnen has been finished 6 times in the archive and absorbs 1.1 strikes per minute.
Favors RuaSonnen averages 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes; Rua has stopped 49% of attempts on record.
Favors RuaRua holds a 3-inch reach edge (76" to 73"); Sonnen has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors RuaWatch the first takedown attempt from Sonnen: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Sonnen keeps landing takedowns at 3.8 per 15 minutes; if Rua stays upright, the striking rates (3.1 vs 3.6 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
