Durability: Cerrone finished 2× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a finishing gap (0% vs 50% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 3-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Shevchenko | Pena |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 27 |
| Height | 5′5″ | 5′6″ |
| Reach | 66.5″ | 69″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | #1 Women's Pound-for-Pound | #1 Women's Bantamweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Pena holds a 3-inch reach edge (69" to 66.5"); Shevchenko has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors PenaShevchenko averages 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes; Pena has stopped 24% of attempts on record.
Favors PenaPena has finished 50% of archived wins (2 KO/TKO, 0 submission), 2 of them inside round one in the last 4.
Favors PenaPena has 2 first-round finishes in the last 4 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Shevchenko keeps landing takedowns at 2.6 per 15 minutes; if Pena stays upright, the striking rates (3 vs 3.1 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
