Grappling: 3.4 takedowns / 15 vs 75% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a finishing gap (100% vs 63% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Rua's wrestling (2 takedowns per 15) against Vera's striking is the central exchange: Vera stops 59% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 4 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Rua | Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 34 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′3″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 78″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Rua has 4 archived five-round fights to Vera’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors RuaRua has finished 100% of archived wins (4 KO/TKO, 0 submission), 2 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors RuaRua has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 2.8 strikes per minute.
Favors VeraRua has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Rua keeps landing takedowns at 2 per 15 minutes; if Vera stays upright, the striking rates (3.6 vs 3 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
