FIGHT SIMULATOR LABS
Fight Simulator
Model-based matchup simulation using Fight DNA and calibrated fight-state models. Ten thousand simulated fights per matchup, anchored to the PBE Fight Model.
Build a matchup
Choose any two fighters with verified Fight DNA. A matchup that is not on a card is labelled a simulated matchup.
How it works
- As-of Fight DNA. Each fighter's striking, grappling, pace and finishing profile, built only from bouts before the fight date.
- Round-level UFC history. Strike, takedown, control and finish components fitted on 4,899 bouts of per-round UFC statistics.
- Opponent interaction. Each round is simulated against the specific opponent, carrying accumulated damage and state into the next round.
- Calibrated outcomes. 10,000 simulated fights, with the winner split anchored to the PBE Fight Model so the two never disagree on who is favoured.
Outputs are probabilities, not certainties. A 60% favourite loses four fights in ten.
Model card
v1.0-rc1Walk-forward 2016–2026, 4,519 bouts (4,149 simulated), each scored only with data and parameters from earlier years. Lower is better on every score.
| Score | Simulator | Baseline |
|---|---|---|
| Winner Brier | 0.2327 | 0.2328 PBE Fight Model alone |
| Method log loss | 0.9729 | 1.0034 weight-class frequency |
| Goes-distance Brier | 0.2394 | 0.2459 weight-class frequency |
Not shown because they are not yet validated: finish time; round-by-round winners; point estimates for control time, takedowns landed, knockdowns or submission attempts; pace-retention claims.