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Round-by-Round Analysis
Fight progression reconstructed from verified round-level observations.
KO/TKO · R3 · 3:37
Rafael NatalRound 3Kevin Casey
23 / 39Sig. strikes4 / 12
59%Accuracy33%
42 / 63Total strikes4 / 12
0Knockdowns0
1 / 1Takedowns0 / 0
0Sub. attempts0
1:44Control0:00
6.4Pace / min1.1
100%Control share0%
Rafael Natal
Targethead 91% · body 0% · leg 9%
Phasedistance 30% · clinch 0% · ground 70%
Kevin Casey
Targethead 50% · body 50% · leg 0%
Phasedistance 100% · clinch 0% · ground 0%
Statistical signals
Output edgeRafael Natal landed 23 significant strikes to 4.Control edgeRafael Natal held 104s of control to 0s.Striking edgeRafael Natal struck at 59% accuracy to 33%.
Descriptive only. These compare recorded output; they are not judge scores and do not say who won the round.
What changed from R2
Pace upRafael Natal's significant-strike pace moved +32% from R2 to R3, 6.4 against 4.8 per minute.
Accuracy shiftRafael Natal's significant-strike accuracy moved -14 pts, 59% against 73%.
Target shiftRafael Natal's head share of landed strikes moved +16 pts, to 91% head with 0% body and 9% leg.
Control swingRafael Natal's control time moved -88s, 104s against 192s.
Defensive driftRafael Natal absorbed significant strikes +176% faster than in R2, 1.1 against 0.4 per minute.
Pace upKevin Casey's significant-strike pace moved +176% from R2 to R3, 1.1 against 0.4 per minute.
Defensive driftKevin Casey absorbed significant strikes +32% faster than in R2, 6.4 against 4.8 per minute.
Observed fight vs historical Fight DNA
Compares this fight against each fighter's pre-fight Fight DNA baseline. Shown only where the historical sample supports it.
Rafael Natal
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Kevin Casey
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Fight summary
54Rafael Natal sig. strikes
16Kevin Casey sig. strikes
3rounds observed
+243%largest pace swing, R1 to R2 (Rafael Natal)
R1
R2
R3
Pace is significant strikes landed per minute of observed round time. A round with no recorded observation is left empty rather than drawn as zero.
