Why Kai Kamaka III's takedown defence is the key variable against Andre Fili

The setup

Andre Fili (25-14-0 (1 NC)) and Kai Kamaka III (18-8-1) meet at featherweight on the main card when UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan arrives at Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, October 10, 2026, scheduled for three rounds.

The card carries 9 bouts in our tables, with this pairing on the main card. The bout is listed as announced in the PropBetEdge schedule.

The question this preview works through is whether Kai Kamaka III can keep the fight where 55% takedown defence says it will struggle to stay, against a 2.24-takedowns-per-15 opponent. Career-to-date round statistics are on file for both fighters, so that comparison is two-sided.

Tale of the tape

• Record: Andre Fili 25-14-0 (1 NC) · Kai Kamaka III 18-8-1
• Age: Andre Fili 36 · Kai Kamaka III 31
• Height: Andre Fili 5'11" · Kai Kamaka III 5'7"
• Reach: Andre Fili 74" · Kai Kamaka III 69"
• Stance: Andre Fili Orthodox · Kai Kamaka III Orthodox
• Listed weight: Andre Fili 145 lbs · Kai Kamaka III 146 lbs

The 5-inch reach gap in Andre Fili's favour (74" to 69") is the tape's headline number; it defines the range each man is working from. A reach edge matters most when the longer fighter also sets the pace, and here the numbers cut the other way: Kai Kamaka III out-lands Fili 5.49 to 3.89 per minute, so the shorter fighter is the busier one and has to cross the gap to do it. That is a different fight from a long fighter picking apart a passive one. Kai Kamaka III is the younger by 5 years (31 to 36). Age on its own tells you little at this level; it reads better alongside the layoff figures in the form section. Both fight orthodox, so lead hands mirror and the rear-hand exchanges are conventional.

Recent form

Andre Fili has 27 completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive: 13 wins, 13 losses and 1 no contest. 4 of those wins came inside the distance (4 by KO/TKO), a 31% finish rate on archived wins. He has been finished 7 times in the archive. He last fought on Jun 20, 2026 and lost to Vinicius Oliveira by KO/TKO in round 2. That is 112 days before fight night, a quick turnaround.

• L vs Vinicius Oliveira — KO/TKO, R2 (Jun 20, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2)
• L vs Jose Miguel Delgado — split decision, R3 (Mar 14, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos)
• W vs Christian Rodriguez — split decision, R3 (Aug 9, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez)
• L vs Melquizael Costa — submission, R1 (Feb 22, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song)
• W vs Cub Swanson — split decision, R3 (Jun 29, 2024, UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2)

Our archive has 6 completed UFC bouts for Kai Kamaka III, 2 wins, 3 losses and 1 draw. None of those wins came inside the distance, a pattern that leans toward the judges. He has been finished twice in the archive. Most recently he lost to Luke Riley by KO/TKO in round 1 on Jul 11, 2026. That is 91 days before fight night, a quick turnaround.

• L vs Luke Riley — KO/TKO, R1 (Jul 11, 2026, UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2)
• W vs Dakota Hope — split decision, R3 (Apr 4, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan)
• D vs Danny Chavez — draw, R3 (Jul 31, 2021, UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland)
• L vs TJ Brown — split decision, R3 (May 1, 2021, UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka)
• L vs Jonathan Pearce — KO/TKO, R2 (Nov 28, 2020, UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark)

Both archives lean toward decisions (31% and 0% of wins finished), which points the other way on the distance question.

Style and statistical matchup

Andre Fili lands 3.89 significant strikes per minute at 37% accuracy; Kai Kamaka III lands 5.49 at 59%. That 1.6-per-minute gap in Kai Kamaka III's favour is a real pace differential: over three rounds it compounds into a scorecard edge unless the lower-volume fighter is landing the more damaging shots. On the other side of the exchange, Andre Fili absorbs 4.55 per minute with 49% striking defence and Kai Kamaka III absorbs 6.03 with 55%.

On the ground, Andre Fili averages 2.24 takedowns per 15 minutes at 46% accuracy and defends 71% of attempts against him; Kai Kamaka III averages 1.45 at 53% and defends 55%. That is the mismatch in this fight: Andre Fili's takedown rate against a 55% defence means Kai Kamaka III should expect to be tested on the fence early, and the takedown and control markets follow directly from whether III holds.

All of these are career-to-date PropSports round-statistics snapshots at capture, not as-of figures for this bout: they describe each fighter across every opponent, which is why the archive form above is read alongside them rather than replaced by them.

Round-level PropSports data exists for 63 archived rounds of Andre Fili's: 1121 of 2962 significant strikes landed (38%), 17.8 per round, 43 of 93 takedowns, 43:23 of control time and 6 knockdowns. Round-level PropSports data exists for 15 archived rounds of Kai Kamaka III's: 398 of 673 significant strikes landed (59%), 26.5 per round, 7 of 13 takedowns, 15:16 of control time and 1 knockdown. Those samples are small and uneven, so they colour the career averages rather than override them.

What could break the angle

Start with what is missing. Career averages are career-to-date snapshots at capture; they include fights outside this matchup context and are not as-of figures. There is also no odds snapshot in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so nothing above can be checked against a market yet; the read describes what to look for, not where value sits. A late weigh-in miss, a replacement or a change in scheduled rounds would each invalidate parts of it.

Final read

On the data, the fight turns on Kai Kamaka III's takedown defence against Andre Fili's rate: 55% against 2.24 per 15 minutes. The uncertainty is ordinary fight variance rather than missing data. What to monitor: the three-round format holding, the weigh-in, and once a price exists, where the fight goes the distance, method of victory, round betting, significant strikes and takedowns markets open relative to this read. No model price or market line exists in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so this is not a pick; the Bettor's Edge panel above carries the impact score and the markets connected to the evidence.

Matchup page: Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III · Full card: UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Fighter pages: Andre Fili, Kai Kamaka III.