Court McGee’s retirement fight presents a grappling test the Nolan price may be discounting

Court McGee’s last walk to the UFC cage will come with none of the strategic experimentation retirement fights sometimes invite. MMA Fighting reported that McGee plans to end his career after facing Eric Nolan at UFC 332 on Saturday, while approaching the preparation and game plan as business as usual.

That distinction matters for bettors. The retirement announcement changes the stakes, but it does not supply evidence that McGee will chase a reckless finish or abandon the style he built across 24 archived UFC bouts. His established route remains attritional: pressure, steady striking volume, takedown attempts and control.

The market has still made Nolan a substantial favorite. As of Tuesday morning, Nolan ranged from -240 at Caesars to -275 at BetMGM. McGee was available between +195 at BetRivers and +220 at BetMGM. Without a graded model output, there is no responsible basis here to declare either side mispriced. There is, however, a clear question embedded in those numbers: can Nolan prevent McGee from turning this into a prolonged clinch-and-grappling fight?

McGee’s best route runs through accumulated work

McGee lands 4.5 significant strikes per minute, 2.82 more than Nolan’s career rate of 1.68. That advantage comes from activity rather than precision. McGee has landed at 36 percent over his career and 37 percent across the 63 rounds in our round-level sample. His 1,364 significant strikes include 708 to the head, 311 to the body and 345 to the legs.

Nolan’s available UFC data look much narrower. He has landed 37 significant strikes over five rounds in two losses, with 31 going to the head, six to the body and none to the legs. His 1.68 strikes landed per minute and 44 percent striking defense trail McGee’s established rates, but two bouts are not enough to treat those figures as a settled description of Nolan’s ability.

The mechanical case for McGee is therefore not that he owns superior one-shot offense. He has recorded only three knockdowns in 63 tracked rounds and no knockout wins among his 11 victories in the 24-bout archive. His case depends on making Nolan work repeatedly, spreading offense across targets and banking exchanges through greater output.