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- Payton Talbott’s Volume Drives a -550 Price Against Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 332
Payton Talbott’s Volume Drives a -550 Price Against Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 332
Talbott’s output, reach and takedown defence explain the wide market, but his recent decision trend makes method and distance props more relevant than an expensive moneyline.
Payton Talbott will face Deiveson Figueiredo in a three-round bantamweight bout at UFC 332 on Oct. 3 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City. LowKick MMA reported the matchup as Figueiredo attempts to stop a slide against one of the division’s fastest-rising contenders.
The opening question for bettors is not difficult: Why is the No. 11-ranked Talbott priced so far above the No. 9-ranked Figueiredo? Our archived Sept. 8 market snapshot shows Talbott at -550 across BetOnline, DraftKings and FanDuel. Figueiredo ranged from +390 to +415.
The harder question is whether the matchup supports laying that price. Talbott owns clear advantages in striking volume, size and age, but he has gone to the scorecards in each of his past three fights. That recent change shifts attention away from his moneyline and toward distance, totals and method-of-victory markets once those prices become available.
Talbott’s advantage starts with repeatable volume
Talbott lands 6.62 significant strikes per minute, more than double Figueiredo’s 2.57. The 4.05-strike gap is the strongest statistical separator in the matchup because it gives Talbott a direct route to winning minutes without needing a knockdown or extended control.
- Date
- Sat, Oct 3, 2026
- Where
- Delta Center · Salt Lake City, USA
- Weight class
- Bantamweight
- Position
- Main · 3 rounds
- Status
- Announced
That route fits his physical dimensions. Talbott is 5-foot-10 with a 70.5-inch reach; Figueiredo is 5-foot-5 with a 68-inch reach. Talbott does not have an overwhelming reach advantage at 2.5 inches, but the five-inch height difference can help him maintain the long exchanges where his activity matters most.
Across six bouts and 15 rounds with complete round data, Talbott has landed 362 significant strikes at 59 percent accuracy. His target distribution is heavily tilted toward the head: 262 head strikes, compared with 71 to the body and 29 to the legs. He has also recorded three knockdowns.
The volume comes with defensive exposure. Talbott absorbs 3.41 significant strikes per minute and owns a 46 percent striking-defence rate. Figueiredo absorbs a nearly identical 3.43 per minute, with 49 percent defence. Talbott’s edge therefore comes from how much more offence he produces, not from being especially difficult to hit.
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