Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Alexander Hernandez: lightweight prelim preview at UFC 332

The setup

Rafael Dos Anjos (32-17-0) and Alexander Hernandez (18-9-0) meet at lightweight on the early prelims when UFC 332 arrives at Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Saturday, October 3, 2026, scheduled for three rounds.

Our schedule tables list 15 bouts on the card; this one is filed under the early prelims. The bout is listed as announced in the PropBetEdge schedule.

The question this preview works through is simple: does either side bring a measurable edge, or is this a matchup the data leaves open? PropSports career averages are on file for both fighters, and the archive holds 36 completed UFC bouts for Rafael Dos Anjos and 18 completed UFC bouts for Alexander Hernandez.

Tale of the tape

• Record: Rafael Dos Anjos 32-17-0 · Alexander Hernandez 18-9-0
• Age: Rafael Dos Anjos 41 · Alexander Hernandez 34
• Height: Rafael Dos Anjos 5'8" · Alexander Hernandez 5'9"
• Reach: Rafael Dos Anjos 70" · Alexander Hernandez 72"
• Stance: Rafael Dos Anjos Southpaw · Alexander Hernandez Orthodox
• Listed weight: Rafael Dos Anjos 171 lbs · Alexander Hernandez 155 lbs

The 2-inch reach gap in Alexander Hernandez's favour (72" to 70") is the tape's headline number; it defines the range each man is working from. A reach edge of that size matters more when the longer fighter also sets the pace, and here Hernandez does: 4.23 significant strikes landed per minute against 3.48 for Anjos. Length with output behind it is how rounds get banked from the outside. Alexander Hernandez is the younger by 7 years (34 to 41). Age on its own tells you little at this level; it reads better alongside the layoff figures in the form section. It is an southpaw-versus-orthodox pairing: lead legs line up on the outside, which rewards the rear straight and the rear kick and makes the calf-kick battle a live one. Listed weights differ: Rafael Dos Anjos at 171 lbs to 155 for Alexander Hernandez. Listed weight is a roster figure, not a weigh-in, so it is a note rather than an edge.

Recent form

Rafael Dos Anjos has 36 completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive: 21 wins and 15 losses. 9 of those wins came inside the distance (4 by KO/TKO and 5 by submission), a 43% finish rate on archived wins. He has been finished 5 times in the archive. He last fought on Oct 26, 2024 and lost to Geoff Neal by KO/TKO in round 1. That is 707 days before fight night on our dates, a layoff long enough to count as a variable in its own right.

• L vs Geoff Neal — KO/TKO, R1 (Oct 26, 2024, UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway)
• L vs Mateusz Gamrot — unanimous decision, R3 (Mar 9, 2024, UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2)
• L vs Vicente Luque — unanimous decision, R5 (Aug 12, 2023, UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos)
• W vs Bryan Barberena — submission, R2 (Dec 3, 2022, UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland)
• L vs Rafael Fiziev — KO/TKO, R5 (Jul 9, 2022, UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev)

Our archive has 18 completed UFC bouts for Alexander Hernandez, 10 wins and 8 losses. 5 of those wins came inside the distance (5 by KO/TKO), a 50% finish rate on archived wins. He has been finished 4 times in the archive. Most recently he lost to Rafa Garcia by unanimous decision in round 3 on Apr 25, 2026. That puts him 161 days out by fight night.

• L vs Rafa Garcia — unanimous decision, R3 (Apr 25, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal)
• W vs Diego Ferreira — KO/TKO, R2 (Sep 13, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva)
• W vs Chase Hooper — KO/TKO, R1 (Aug 16, 2025, UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev)
• W vs Kurt Holobaugh — unanimous decision, R3 (Mar 15, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2)
• W vs Austin Hubbard — split decision, R3 (Oct 5, 2024, UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.)

Alexander Hernandez is the more recently active of the two (161 days out against 707 for Anjos).

Style and statistical matchup

Rafael Dos Anjos lands 3.48 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy; Alexander Hernandez lands 4.23 at 40%. The two are close on volume, so neither side can expect to win rounds on activity alone. On the other side of the exchange, Rafael Dos Anjos absorbs 3.23 per minute with 60% striking defence and Alexander Hernandez absorbs 4.45 with 59%.

On the ground, Rafael Dos Anjos averages 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes at 35% accuracy and defends 54% of attempts against him; Alexander Hernandez averages 1.05 at 35% and defends 68%. Alexander Hernandez's 14-point takedown-defence edge is the grappling number to weigh: it limits how often the fight leaves the striking exchanges.

All of these are career-to-date PropSports snapshots at capture, not as-of figures for this bout: they describe each fighter across every opponent, which is why the archive form above is read alongside them rather than replaced by them.

Round-level stats exist for 112 archived rounds of Rafael Dos Anjos's: 1822 of 3871 significant strikes landed (47%), 16.3 per round, 68 of 191 takedowns, 136:45 of control time and 7 knockdowns. Round-level stats exist for 41 archived rounds of Alexander Hernandez's: 789 of 1951 significant strikes landed (40%), 19.2 per round, 13 of 37 takedowns, 24:08 of control time and 6 knockdowns. Those samples are small and uneven, so they colour the career averages rather than override them.

What could break the angle

Here is where the read could be wrong. Rafael Dos Anjos will have been out 707 days by fight night on our archive dates: a long layoff the averages cannot price. Career averages are career-to-date snapshots at capture; they include fights outside this matchup context and are not as-of figures. There is also no odds snapshot in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so nothing above can be checked against a market yet; the read describes what to look for, not where value sits. A late weigh-in miss, a replacement or a change in scheduled rounds would each invalidate parts of it.

Final read

On the data, neither fighter carries a material edge into this one; the tape is close and the archive does not separate them. The uncertainty is ordinary fight variance rather than missing data. What to monitor: the three-round format holding, the weigh-in, and once a price exists, where the fight goes the distance, method of victory and round betting markets open relative to this read. No model price or market line exists in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so this is not a pick; the Bettor's Edge panel above carries the impact score and the markets connected to the evidence.

Matchup page: Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Alexander Hernandez · Full card: UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Fighter pages: Rafael Dos Anjos, Alexander Hernandez.