Grappling: 2.8 takedowns / 15
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (2.1 vs 0 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 5-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Hawes | Marquez |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 27 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Hawes holds a 5-inch reach edge (77" to 72"); Marquez has to cross distance to land.
Favors HawesHawes averages 2.1 takedowns per 15 minutes; Marquez has stopped 54% of attempts on record.
Favors Marquez5.3 and 5.1 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (59% vs 45%) decides the exchanges.
Watch the first takedown attempt from Hawes: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Hawes keeps landing takedowns at 2.1 per 15 minutes; if Marquez stays upright, the striking rates (5.3 vs 5.1 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
