Grappling: 4.6 takedowns / 15 vs 58% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.2 vs 1.7 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
The stored career numbers do not draw a sharp contrast between these two, which usually means the fight is decided by adjustments rather than a single dominant phase.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 7-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Almeida | Fernando |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 35 | 26 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′3″ |
| Reach | 74″ | 80.5″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Fernando holds a 7-inch reach edge (80.5" to 74"); Almeida has to cross distance to land.
Favors FernandoFernando averages 1.7 takedowns per 15 minutes; Almeida has stopped 53% of attempts on record.
Favors Almeida3.7 and 3.7 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (60% vs 57%) decides the exchanges.
Who sets the range in round one: Fernando holds the longer reach, so early success for the shorter fighter usually requires feints and fast entries.
With the stored numbers close, the middle rounds come down to adjustments: who solves the opening read first, with strike defense at 44% and 51%.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
