Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Hamill's wrestling (3 takedowns per 15) against Jackson's striking is the central exchange: Jackson stops 73% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 3 takedowns / 15 vs 73% defense
| Attribute | Jackson | Hamill |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 34 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 73″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Hamill averages 3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Jackson has stopped 73% of attempts on record.
Favors JacksonHamill holds a 3-inch reach edge (76" to 73"); Jackson has to cross distance to land.
Favors HamillHamill has finished 56% of archived wins (5 KO/TKO, 0 submission), 2 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors HamillHamill has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Hamill keeps landing takedowns at 3 per 15 minutes; if Jackson stays upright, the striking rates (3.3 vs 3.7 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.