Women's Strawweight · 5 roundsMain Card · Full packet
Matchup read
Dern has stopped most takedowns on record; Dern has the deeper five-round experience.
Key signals
Pace3.4Dern2.6RobertsonSig. strikes landed / minSimilar output
Dern has stopped most takedowns on record; Dern has the deeper five-round experience.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3.2 vs 0.8 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (2.3 vs 4.3 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (50% vs 0% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 4-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Makhachev | Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34 | 28 |
| Height | 5′10″ | 6′3″ |
| Reach | 70.5″ | 74.5″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Welterweight champion | #1 Welterweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Garry holds a 4-inch reach edge (74.5" to 70.5"); Makhachev has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors GarryGarry lands 4.3 significant strikes per minute to Makhachev’s 2.3: a real volume gap.
Favors GarryMakhachev averages 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Garry has stopped 71% of attempts on record.
Favors GarryWatch the first takedown attempt from Makhachev: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Makhachev keeps landing takedowns at 3.2 per 15 minutes; if Garry stays upright, the striking rates (2.3 vs 4.3 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
Turner holds the reach edge and the open-stance angles; Turner has been stopped before in the archive.
Abdul-Malik holds the reach edge; Abdul-Malik has been stopped before in the archive.
Ribovics carries the higher measured striking pace; Barboza holds the reach edge.
