Pace: 4 vs 1.3 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3 vs 0 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (2.1 vs 0.9 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 3 takedowns / 15 vs 66% defense
| Attribute | Hughes | Gracie |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 39 |
| Height | 5′9″ | 6′1″ |
| Reach | 73″ | Not published |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Hughes averages 3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Gracie has stopped 66% of attempts on record.
Favors GracieGracie has finished 100% of archived wins (1 KO/TKO, 10 submission), 4 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors GracieHughes lands 2.1 significant strikes per minute to Gracie’s 0.9: a real volume gap.
Favors HughesGracie has 4 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Hughes keeps landing takedowns at 3 per 15 minutes; if Gracie stays upright, the striking rates (2.1 vs 0.9 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
