Durability: Stephens finished 3× on record
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (2.8 vs 4.8 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 5-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Garbrandt | Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 24 | 24 |
| Height | 5′8″ | 5′7″ |
| Reach | 65.5″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Almeida holds a 5-inch reach edge (70" to 65.5"); Garbrandt has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors AlmeidaAlmeida lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute to Garbrandt’s 2.8: a real volume gap.
Favors AlmeidaAlmeida has finished 75% of archived wins (3 KO/TKO, 0 submission), 2 of them inside round one in the last 4.
Favors AlmeidaAlmeida has 2 first-round finishes in the last 4 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
The middle rounds belong to whoever sets the pace: Almeida averages 4.8 landed per minute to Garbrandt at 2.8, so Garbrandt needs the counters to land clean (40% accuracy on record).
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
