Distance: 5-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (3.1 vs 0.8 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Brunson finished 4× on record
| Attribute | Brunson | Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 37 | 28 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 6′3″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 81″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Brunson has been finished 4 times in the archive and absorbs 3 strikes per minute.
Favors HollandBrunson has 3 archived five-round fights to Holland’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors BrunsonHolland holds a 4-inch reach edge (81" to 77"); Brunson has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors HollandHolland has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Brunson keeps landing takedowns at 3.1 per 15 minutes; if Holland stays upright, the striking rates (3.5 vs 4.2 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
