Petrino has stopped most takedowns on record; Spivac has been stopped before in the archive.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (6.5 vs 1.6 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceGrappling: 6.5 takedowns / 15 vs 85% defense
| Attribute | Hernandez | Rodrigues |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 34 |
| Height | 6′0″ | 6′3″ |
| Reach | 75″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | #8 Middleweight | #7 Middleweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Hernandez averages 6.5 takedowns per 15 minutes; Rodrigues has stopped 85% of attempts on record.
Favors RodriguesRodrigues has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 4.6 strikes per minute.
Favors Hernandez4.6 and 5.8 significant strikes per minute: similar output, so accuracy (62% vs 53%) decides the exchanges.
Rodrigues has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Hernandez keeps landing takedowns at 6.5 per 15 minutes; if Rodrigues stays upright, the striking rates (4.6 vs 5.8 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
Dolidze has stopped most takedowns on record; Ridder holds the reach edge and the open-stance angles.
Jones holds the reach edge; Mederos has stopped most takedowns on record.
Judice carries the higher measured striking pace in the available sample.
Wint carries the higher measured striking pace; Chatman has stopped most takedowns on record.
