Pace: 5.1 vs 2.8 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a finishing gap (80% vs 40% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Burkman's wrestling (2.5 takedowns per 15) against Swick's striking is the central exchange: Swick stops 61% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 5-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Swick | Burkman |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28 | 27 |
| Height | 6′1″ | 5′10″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 72″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Swick holds a 5-inch reach edge (77" to 72"); Burkman has to cross distance to land.
Favors SwickBurkman averages 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes; Swick has stopped 61% of attempts on record.
Favors SwickSwick has finished 80% of archived wins (2 KO/TKO, 2 submission), 3 of them inside round one in the last 5.
Favors SwickSwick has 3 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Burkman keeps landing takedowns at 2.5 per 15 minutes; if Swick stays upright, the striking rates (2.4 vs 2.7 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
