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Round-by-Round Analysis
Fight progression reconstructed from verified round-level observations.
Submission · R2 · 3:48
Donald CerroneRound 2Paul Kelly
17 / 34Sig. strikes10 / 34
50%Accuracy29%
31 / 48Total strikes16 / 40
0Knockdowns0
1 / 1Takedowns0 / 0
1Sub. attempts1
1:35Control0:00
4.5Pace / min2.6
100%Control share0%
Donald Cerrone
Targethead 47% · body 29% · leg 24%
Phasedistance 65% · clinch 6% · ground 29%
Paul Kelly
Targethead 50% · body 30% · leg 20%
Phasedistance 100% · clinch 0% · ground 0%
Statistical signals
Output edgeDonald Cerrone landed 17 significant strikes to 10.Control edgeDonald Cerrone held 95s of control to 0s.Striking edgeDonald Cerrone struck at 50% accuracy to 29%.
Descriptive only. These compare recorded output; they are not judge scores and do not say who won the round.
What changed from R1
Target shiftDonald Cerrone's head share of landed strikes moved +17 pts, to 47% head with 29% body and 24% leg.
Target shiftPaul Kelly's head share of landed strikes moved -42 pts, to 50% head with 30% body and 20% leg.
Observed fight vs historical Fight DNA
Compares this fight against each fighter's pre-fight Fight DNA baseline. Shown only where the historical sample supports it.
Donald Cerrone
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Paul Kelly
Insufficient sample. This fighter's Fight DNA as of the event date did not have enough covered rounds to compare against, so no deviation is shown.
Fight summary
37Donald Cerrone sig. strikes
22Paul Kelly sig. strikes
2rounds observed
+12%largest pace swing, R1 to R2 (Donald Cerrone)
R1
R2
Pace is significant strikes landed per minute of observed round time. A round with no recorded observation is left empty rather than drawn as zero.
