Kalshi settlement: Ismail Naurdiev — YES
Market closedSettled
We started recording this market after trading began, so “First observed” is our first record, not the opening price.
Prediction-market prices, not sportsbook odds and not a PropBetEdge model. Settlement is the market venue's, not our result.
A draw or no contest pays 50¢ per contract.
Unanimous decision. Every judge scored the bout for Ismail Naurdiev.
Scorecards as recorded by PropSports results · source ↗ · fighter attribution derived from the recorded result, not assumed from score order · how this is built
| 0 | Knockdowns | 0 |
|---|---|---|
| 76/201 | Sig. strikes38% · 39% | 74/190 |
| 77/202 | Total strikes | 74/190 |
| 0/2 | Takedowns | 3/7 |
| 0:13 | Control | 1:10 |
| 0 | Reversals | 0 |
| 62/182 | Head | 37/141 |
|---|---|---|
| 7/9 | Body | 9/16 |
| 7/10 | Leg | 28/33 |
| 76/201 | Distance | 72/187 |
|---|---|---|
| 0/0 | Clinch | 2/3 |
| 0/0 | Ground | 0/0 |
Both breakdowns decompose the same significant-strike totals, once by target and once by position, so each adds back to the sig. strikes line above.
Fight progression reconstructed from verified round-level observations.
Pace is significant strikes landed per minute of observed round time. A round with no recorded observation is left empty rather than drawn as zero.
| Round | Fighter | KD | Sig. str. | Total | TD | Sub | Ctrl | Head | Body | Leg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ismail Naurdiev’s unanimous-decision win extends Vettori’s skid, but the underlying evidence still points bettors toward distance and decision markets rather than an automatic durability collapse.
Vettori says his recent form no longer reflects him, but bettors must decide whether a change in preparation can repair the defensive and efficiency gaps behind four straight decision losses.
| R1 |
| Marvin Vettori |
| 0 |
| 18/64 |
| 19/65 |
| 0/2 |
| 0 |
| 0:13 |
| 12 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| Ismail Naurdiev | 0 | 28/59 | 28/59 | 2/2 | 1 | 1:06 | 10 | 1 | 17 |
| R2 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 29/69 | 29/69 | 0/0 | 0 | 0:00 | 24 | 3 | 2 |
| Ismail Naurdiev | 0 | 26/65 | 26/65 | 1/1 | 0 | 0:02 | 14 | 5 | 7 |
| R3 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 29/68 | 29/68 | 0/0 | 0 | 0:00 | 26 | 1 | 2 |
| Ismail Naurdiev | 0 | 20/66 | 20/66 | 0/4 | 0 | 0:02 | 13 | 3 | 4 |
Vettori has returned to a familiar setup under Beneil Dariush before facing Ismail Naurdiev, but the actionable betting questions concern pace, takedown commitment and another likely decision.
