Kalshi settlement: Jai Herbert — YES
Market closedSettled
Prediction-market prices, not sportsbook odds and not a PropBetEdge model. Settlement is the market venue's, not our result.
A draw or no contest pays 50¢ per contract.
Agreed · wrong
Market price recorded 0 min before the algorithm locked (Kalshi prediction market). Later market moves never change this contest.
Unanimous decision. Every judge scored the bout for Jai Herbert.
Scorecards as recorded by PropSports results · source ↗ · fighter attribution derived from the recorded result, not assumed from score order · how this is built
| 0 | Knockdowns | 0 |
|---|---|---|
| 44/90 | Sig. strikes49% · 35% | 55/156 |
| 55/106 | Total strikes | 69/174 |
| 2/4 | Takedowns | 0/1 |
| 2:43 | Control | 3:06 |
| 0 | Reversals | 1 |
| 25/65 | Head | 32/123 |
|---|---|---|
| 7/10 | Body | 13/20 |
| 12/15 | Leg | 10/13 |
| 36/81 | Distance | 44/129 |
|---|---|---|
| 2/2 | Clinch | 4/5 |
| 6/7 | Ground | 7/22 |
Both breakdowns decompose the same significant-strike totals, once by target and once by position, so each adds back to the sig. strikes line above.
Fight progression reconstructed from verified round-level observations.
Pace is significant strikes landed per minute of observed round time. A round with no recorded observation is left empty rather than drawn as zero.
| Round | Fighter | KD | Sig. str. | Total | TD | Sub | Ctrl | Head | Body | Leg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Herbert cashed at prices as high as +165 by surviving Camilo’s grappling pressure and turning defensive sequences into decisive offense.
Herbert owns the reach and deeper UFC sample, but Camilo’s wrestling rate defines both the matchup and the betting decision.
| R1 |
| Matheus Camilo |
| 0 |
| 13/33 |
| 14/34 |
| 1/1 |
| 0 |
| 1:02 |
| 8 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 9/42 | 9/42 | 0/0 | 0 | 0:00 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| R2 | Matheus Camilo | 0 | 6/14 | 7/15 | 1/1 | 0 | 1:03 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 8/37 | 29/65 | 0/0 | 0 | 2:08 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| R3 | Matheus Camilo | 0 | 24/39 | 30/45 | 0/2 | 0 | 0:36 | 16 | 4 | 4 |
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 37/78 | 42/87 | 0/1 | 0 | 0:47 | 16 | 14 | 7 |
Does Jai Herbert's 8 inches of reach decide the range against Matheus Camilo? Tale of the tape, recent form and the markets connected to the answer at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan on Oct 10, 2026.
