Why Cesar Almeida's takedown defence is the key variable against Donte Johnson

Our archive has 7 completed UFC bouts for Cesar Almeida, 4 wins and 3 losses. 2 of those wins came inside the distance (2 by KO/TKO), a 50% finish rate on archived wins. He has been finished once in the archive. Most recently he lost to Damian Pinas by KO/TKO in round 1 on Jul 11, 2026. That puts him 126 days out by fight night.

• L vs Damian Pinas — KO/TKO, R1 (Jul 11, 2026, UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2)
• L vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk — unanimous decision, R3 (Dec 14, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape)
• W vs Abdul Razak Alhassan — KO/TKO, R1 (Jan 11, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2)
• W vs Ihor Potieria — unanimous decision, R3 (Oct 5, 2024, UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.)
• L vs Roman Kopylov — split decision, R3 (Jun 1, 2024, UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier)

Donte Johnson ends 75% of archived wins early against 50% for Cesar Almeida; with Cesar Almeida finished once in 7 archived bouts, that asymmetry is the pattern behind the distance and method markets.

Style and statistical matchup

Donte Johnson lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy; Cesar Almeida lands 3.73 at 60%. The two are close on volume, so neither side can expect to win rounds on activity alone. On the other side of the exchange, Donte Johnson absorbs 2.11 per minute with 61% striking defence and Cesar Almeida absorbs 2.23 with 44%. Donte Johnson's 17-point defence edge is the number to hold against the pace figures: it decides how much of the opponent's output actually lands.

On the ground, Donte Johnson averages 1.87 takedowns per 15 minutes at 100% accuracy and defends 76% of attempts against him; Cesar Almeida averages 0.2 at 33% and defends 53%. That is the mismatch in this fight: Donte Johnson's takedown rate against a 53% defence means Cesar Almeida should expect to be tested on the fence early, and the takedown and control markets follow directly from whether Almeida holds.

All of these are career-to-date PropSports round-statistics snapshots at capture, not as-of figures for this bout: they describe each fighter across every opponent, which is why the archive form above is read alongside them rather than replaced by them.

Round-level PropSports data exists for 6 archived rounds of Donte Johnson's: 66 of 155 significant strikes landed (43%), 11 per round, 3 of 3 takedowns, 6:36 of control time and 1 knockdown. Round-level PropSports data exists for 16 archived rounds of Cesar Almeida's: 284 of 471 significant strikes landed (60%), 17.8 per round, 1 of 3 takedowns, 9:15 of control time and 1 knockdown. Those samples are small and uneven, so they colour the career averages rather than override them.

What could break the angle

Start with what is missing. Career averages are career-to-date snapshots at capture; they include fights outside this matchup context and are not as-of figures. There is also no odds snapshot in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so nothing above can be checked against a market yet; the read describes what to look for, not where value sits. A late weigh-in miss, a replacement or a change in scheduled rounds would each invalidate parts of it.

Final read

On the data, the fight turns on Cesar Almeida's takedown defence against Donte Johnson's rate: 53% against 1.87 per 15 minutes. The uncertainty is ordinary fight variance rather than missing data. What to monitor: the three-round format holding, the weigh-in, and once a price exists, where the moneyline, fight goes the distance, method of victory, round betting and takedowns markets open relative to this read. No model price or market line exists in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so this is not a pick; the Bettor's Edge panel above carries the impact score and the markets connected to the evidence.

Matchup page: Donte Johnson vs. Cesar Almeida · Full card: UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Fighter pages: Donte Johnson, Cesar Almeida.