Donte Johnson vs. Baisangur Susurkaev: the reach and pace mismatch bettors should watch

Baisangur Susurkaev has 4 completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive: 4 wins. Every one of them came inside the distance (2 by KO/TKO and 2 by submission). He last fought on May 9, 2026 and beat Djorden Santos by submission in round 3. That puts him 189 days out by fight night.

• W vs Djorden Santos — submission, R3 (May 9, 2026, UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland)
• W vs Eric McConico — KO/TKO, R3 (Nov 15, 2025, UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev)
• W vs Eric Nolan — submission, R2 (Aug 16, 2025, UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev)
• W vs Murtaza Talha — KO/TKO, R1 (Aug 12, 2025, Dana White's Contender Series: Season 9, Week 1)

Both archives lean toward finishes (75% and 100% of wins), which is the pattern that feeds a fight-goes-distance read.

Style and statistical matchup

Donte Johnson lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy; Baisangur Susurkaev lands 5.74 at 54%. That 2.38-per-minute gap in Baisangur Susurkaev's favour is a real pace differential: over three rounds it compounds into a scorecard edge unless the lower-volume fighter is landing the more damaging shots. On the other side of the exchange, Donte Johnson absorbs 2.11 per minute with 61% striking defence and Baisangur Susurkaev absorbs 4.45 with 58%.

On the ground, Donte Johnson averages 1.87 takedowns per 15 minutes at 100% accuracy and defends 76% of attempts against him; Baisangur Susurkaev averages 2.09 at 26% and defends 100%. Baisangur Susurkaev's 24-point takedown-defence edge is the grappling number to weigh: it limits how often the fight leaves the striking exchanges.

All of these are career-to-date PropSports round-statistics snapshots at capture, not as-of figures for this bout: they describe each fighter across every opponent, which is why the archive form above is read alongside them rather than replaced by them.

Round-level PropSports data exists for 6 archived rounds of Donte Johnson's: 66 of 155 significant strikes landed (43%), 11 per round, 3 of 3 takedowns, 6:36 of control time and 1 knockdown. Round-level PropSports data exists for 8 archived rounds of Baisangur Susurkaev's: 196 of 363 significant strikes landed (54%), 24.5 per round, 5 of 19 takedowns, 8:48 of control time and 1 knockdown. Those samples are small and uneven, so they colour the career averages rather than override them.

What could break the angle

Start with what is missing. Career averages are career-to-date snapshots at capture; they include fights outside this matchup context and are not as-of figures. There is also no odds snapshot in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so nothing above can be checked against a market yet; the read describes what to look for, not where value sits. A late weigh-in miss, a replacement or a change in scheduled rounds would each invalidate parts of it.

Final read

On the data, Baisangur Susurkaev's 5 inches of reach is the one material physical edge, and what it is worth depends on pace figures our tables do hold. The uncertainty is ordinary fight variance rather than missing data. What to monitor: the three-round format holding, the weigh-in, and once a price exists, where the fight goes the distance, method of victory, round betting and significant strikes markets open relative to this read. No model price or market line exists in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so this is not a pick; the Bettor's Edge panel above carries the impact score and the markets connected to the evidence.

Matchup page: Donte Johnson vs. Baisangur Susurkaev · Full card: UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · Fighter pages: Donte Johnson, Baisangur Susurkaev.